This Blog will examine the overall situation in the Middle East, particularly the possibility of a US or Israeli attack on Iran. Other geo-political issues such as the revolt in Syria will be examined as well.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Why Israel Attacking Iran Could be a Bad Idea for the Israelis Themselves
An Israeli Attack on Iran's Nuclear Program Could Have Negative Affects on Israel
Greatarticle from Juan Cole of CNN on 10 reasons why attacking Iran is a really bad idea. What I found interesting is that he looks at this strictly from an Israeli perspective, not an American one. Some of Juan's reasons are obvious to all - a spike in oil prices, counter-attacks by Iran, Iran's client Hezbollah likely launching missiles into Israel. However, some of Juan's points were quite intriguing and have not been discussed much in the media: Syria could be drawn in, effectively ending the uprising there; Egypt would face popular pressure to terminate the Camp David accords with Israel; Shiite Iraq would become radicalized and would likely become much more active in its support of Hezbollah and Iran. As the war drums continue to beat, one can only hope that Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have taken the time to fully think through the strategic implications of what they may do. Not only the short-term implications - such as retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah - but some of the broader strategic implications for their position in the region. Is it really sensible for Israel to suffer these strategic setbacks for an attack which may not even be successful, but by all accounts would likely set back the Iranian nuclear program by only a year or two at the most?